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It is currently fashionable to look ahead to see what the future is likely to be, and, if what is seen is unsatisfactory, to consider alternative futures and means necessary to achieve them. This is based upon a recognition that the future is in part what we make it. If we know the consequences of current actions, society—and that part of society influenced by churches, and more particularly the Mormon Church—can reshape the future in a more satisfactory way. 

My comments are limited to a simple forecast of Church membership and average individual and family incomes of Church members through the year 2000 A.D. More specifically, national and Mormon population are projected forward to the year 2000 based on historical information and modified by some speculation of the likely forces operating to influence Mormon membership growth during the next 32 years. The forecast will include some estimate of geographical location and urban-rural split, and average and total Mormon income through the remainder of the twentieth century. All forecasts are necessarily based on the assumption that thermonuclear warfare or other highly destructive and disruptive catastrophies will not occur during this period of time. 

Population Chnage

By the year 2000, while the United States population will probably grow from 200 million to just over 300 million, the Mormon Church is likely to grow from two million (1 percent of the U.S. population) to six million members (2.3 percent of the probable U.S. population) or at an annual rate of 4 percent for the remaining 32 years of the twentieth century. This growth rate is considerably more than that of the nation as a whole and about the same as Mormon membership growth during the preceding 32 years (1936-1968) but less than membership growth during earlier years in the history of the Church. A lower forecast may be justified because of (1) the likelihood of a continued decrease in the number of children per family as society becomes more urban ized; (2) the great difficulty of maintaining a dynamic proselytizing program in a larger, necessarily more bureaucratic, organization; (3) the impact of new immigration restrictions on the long-run flow of foreign converts; and (4) other factors. 

A lower forecast figure is not suggested because average income and health standards will likely act to increase the life expectancy of Mormons and thus offset lower birth rates and less dynamic proselytizing efforts. Life expectancy may increase about 10 percent for the population as a whole from an average of 70 to 77 years. But for the average white, middle-income, active Church member, the average life expectancy might rise from about 75 years now to nearly 83 years in 2000 A.D. 

This forecast could be unduly pessimistic because membership growth could accelerate based on increased proselytizing efforts and a more favorable environment for traditional values represented by the Church. Therefore, I have provided an estimate for a higher growth rate for the optimist and a lower rate for the pessimist. 

Although Mormons will not loom large as a proportion of the nation’s population, there will be sizable numbers of Mormons in such states as Utah, California, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, and Nevada. Although their numbers will increase in size in each of these states, Mormons may become a smaller proportion of the inhabitants of western states—particularly Utah and Idaho; this could occur because of the significant migration of non-Mor mons into these states and the continued migration of Church members to other areas. 

Mormons in the United States will increasingly be located in suburban areas in the West. The larger average family size of Mormons, the stress on open spaces for physical exercise and recreation, and the larger proportion of Mormons in the middle-income bracket are indicators that they will continue to locate in suburbia. As is the case for the United States as a whole, Mormons in rural areas will find fewer opportunities for jobs because agriculture, mining, forestry, fishing and other extractive industries generally located in rural environments will decrease not only as a relative proportion of all industrial output but absolutely as well. Moreover, the greater opportunities for personal development in urban areas will act as a magnet drawing rural Mormons—particularly the young—to the suburbs. 

Mormons will be disproportionately underrepresented in central cities because their middle incomes will give them the ability to live in suburban areas and because few of the minority groups found in the cores of large cities will provide members of the Church. 

The growth of the Church in foreign countries is more difficult to forecast. There are reasons to expect that the growth in foreign Church membership will be greater than in the United States, even though in the future American value systems might be less popular in developing countries. The larger growth rate in the less developed areas such as South and Central America will probably occur because of large families, some decrease in the death rate, and the greater ease in proselytizing people with more traditional values. Considering both favorable and unfavorable factors, the present number of one-half million Church members abroad will probably reach two and one-half to three million by 2000 A.D.—increasing at a rate of 6 percent per year. 

The concentration of Mormons in a few Christian or Americanized countries is likely to continue as it does today, although Mormons are being con verted in such unusual places as Southeast Asia. In decreasing order of Mormon population size, these countries are now Canada, New Zealand, England, Scotland, Brazil, Germany, Uruguay, Samoan Islands, Australia, Argentina, Tongan Islands, Guatemala, Chile, Japan, Peru, Netherlands, France and South Africa. The growth in Church membership will probably continue to concentrate in these countries during the remainder of the twentieth century. 

The Mormon population in the world is therefore likely to rise from 2.6 million or 0.08 percent of the 3 billion inhabitants of this planet in 1968 to 8.5 million or 0.28 percent of the projected population of 5 billion people forecast for 2000 A.D. 

Income Change

The average personal income of Mormons in the United States may presently be about $3,500 or the income of Americans adjusted for the approximate mix of race and locational factors peculiar to Mormons. This is compared to the national average of $3,410. The estimate of a slightly higher average income for Mormons in comparison with other Americans can be explained by a higher average level of skill attainment and, perhaps, by a greater emphasis by Mormons upon excelling in their jobs and making money. These factors are partially eroded by the generally lower average income of people living in Utah and Idaho and some other western states as compared to other states. 

By the year 2000, the average personal income may be about $9,000 for Mormons and $8,000 for other Americans, assuming full employment of re sources and growth in output of goods and services at the nation’s current potential, which is about 4 percent—excluding the artificial rise in income caused by inflation. 

The median Mormon family income is presently estimated to be about $8,700 compared to about $8,400 for the United States population as a whole. By 2000 A.D. the median Mormon family in the United States could be receiving an income of $23,000. 

Families headed by professionally trained individuals will generate even larger incomes. The average gross income for families with a parent skilled in some of the professional specialties of economics, law and medicine could reach an average of $75,000 or more per year. 

Income will rise because of large increases in the goods and services provided for each hour worked which in turn will come about because of technological change. New techniques will be developed and embodied in new machines such as fourth generation computers or developed and applied by people through increased use of applied mathematics and engineering. For this to occur, continued high investment in machines and investment in education and training must be fostered. Both types of investments account for the reason that man-hour productivity increases by about 3 percent per year. 

Education among the Mormons is already high, perhaps higher than the 15 percent of Americans in their late twenties who have graduated from college, and by the end of this century the proportion completing college will likely soar to nearly twice this figure in the United States. In the year 2000, perhaps as many as 75 percent of all Mormons will have completed a year or more of college by their thirtieth birthday. 

Education and technological knowledge transferred by education will make it possible to increase the proportion of people who are imaginative, who persevere, and who have the ability to think clearly. Some scientists contend that the achievements that distinguish man from the animals and that are responsible for man’s civilization, art, literature, and science are attained by only 1 percent of the human population. The proportion is likely to increase to perhaps as high as 2 percent in the next 32 years. 

By 2000 A.D., technical knowledge will probably increase by 200 percent of that which has accumulated since the dawn of man. Thus a college graduate who masters the current technical knowledge in his field and lives off this bank of knowledge for 32 years may find his knowledge two-thirds inadequate. And technical knowledge and its application do influence “wisdom” and “values.” Assuming that there is no technical knowledge generation gap now—which is obviously an unreal assumption—there could be a two-thirds “gap” by the year 2000 if older people do not progress rapidly. This places a high premium on those who remain current and understand technological change and its impact on our society. More members of the Church will live to be 100 years old; for these centenarians, five generations will pass from birth to death. They will live about four generations beyond elementary and secondary schooling and college, the time when they accumulated their basic technical knowledge and developed their set of values. Church leadership is and should be conscious of the fact that aging leadership must be tempered with continuous education and open communication channels with younger generations and high-level leadership opportunities for all adult generations if the Church is to remain dynamic and viable in a rapidly changing world. 

[Editor’s Note: For Tables 1 and 2, see PDF, p. 135]

The bountiful rewards for Mormons from the future American economy can be used for a variety of goods and services such as increases in the quantity and quality of food, clothing, housing, entertainment, education, medical care and Church activities. Some purchases will likely be made directly in the market place, such as for food, clothing, and shelter. Other purchases will be made jointly with other consumers through the government for such things as urban transportation, environmental pollution control, communication systems, and national security; such purchases are far too expensive or unavailable if purchased by individuals alone. Consequently, government at all levels—local, state, federal and even international—will have to provide these. In addition, members of society may wish to redistribute a larger pro portion of their income to the disadvantaged than they do now (e.g., to the handicapped, the unskilled, the poor). 

Both of these last uses of personal income will likely increase the average tax burden from the current level of 34 percent to at least 40 percent by 2000 A.D. This will mean an increase in community purchases and redistributive activities of about 400 percent between now and 2000 A.D., while direct purchase of goods and services will increase about 300 percent. 

In addition, Mormons will likely continue to give part of their income for new Church facilities, the upkeep of older facilities, the operation of Church programs, and the needs of other Church members. If a full tithing is paid by all Church members, then the potential source of annual revenue for the Church may rise from an estimate of current potential of about $.75 billion to over $6 billion by 2000 A.D. But the tithing potential is undoubtedly larger than what is now and will be paid. Perhaps 3 percent is the average rate contributed now. At this rate, receipts from tithing could rise from about $216 million in 1968 to $1.9 billion in 2000 A.D. And if the Church reaps another $100 million from other sources now, then the nearly $1 million dol lars a day income could rise to over $6 million per day. This is equivalent to 11,000 chapels each year ($200,000 each) or the education of 440,000 Mor mons ($5,000 per year per student). 

Both “actual” tithing and average taxes will likely increase from the present level of about 36 percent to at least 42 percent in 2000 A.D. In the case of the full tithe payer and average taxpayer, the increase could be from about 41 percent to 47 percent. 

Conclusion

The remaining years of the twentieth century will increase the relative and absolute size of Church membership. Church members will increase in wealth to an unprecedented level and benefit from rapid technological change. Both wealth and new knowledge purchased with it will undoubtedly require the Church and its members to adjust to a rapidly changing world or run the risk of being in the world and out of it all at the same time.